About snowdayprediction.ca
snowdayprediction.ca exists because every existing snow day predictor in Canada makes the same mistake — it applies a single weather threshold to every school board in the country. A 10cm snowfall forecast does not mean the same thing for Toronto District School Board as it does for Simcoe County District School Board. TDSB closes 3 to 5 times per year. SCDSB closes 12 to 15 times. The same storm produces fundamentally different outcomes depending on which board covers your city.
The predictor pulls live weather data from Environment Canada every 30 minutes and runs it through a 9-variable scoring algorithm calibrated to the specific school board covering each city. Board-specific closure thresholds, geographic footprint, rural route exposure, and historical closure frequency are all factored into each probability score. The result is a number that reflects how that board actually behaves — not how an average Ontario board behaves.
Why Board Calibration Matters
Ontario has 72 school boards. Each board makes independent closure decisions based on local road conditions, bus operator reports, and geographic factors specific to the communities they serve. A board covering 150 schools across rural Wellington and Dufferin counties closes at a lower snowfall threshold than a board serving dense urban Toronto neighbourhoods — because rural county roads deteriorate faster and receive lower plowing priority than urban arterials.
Generic snow day predictors ignore this. snowdayprediction.ca is built around it. Every city page on this site documents the specific school board, its geographic coverage, historical closure frequency, and the local weather patterns that drive closures — because context is what separates a useful prediction from a weather forecast rebranded as a snow day tool.
What the Site Does Not Do
snowdayprediction.ca does not make official closure announcements. School boards make closure decisions — snowdayprediction.ca calculates the probability that a closure will occur based on forecast conditions and historical board behaviour. A 90% probability score is not a closure announcement. Always verify through the official school board website or local radio station before making decisions.
The site does not collect personal information. The prediction tool requires only a city name — no account, no email, no location data beyond what you type into the search field.
Data Sources
Every prediction runs on Environment Canada MSC Datamart weather data and Open-Meteo forecast grids. Both are open government and open data sources. snowdayprediction.ca is not affiliated with Environment Canada, any school board, or any provincial government.
Questions or feedback? Contact snowdayprediction.ca at contact@snowdayprediction.ca